Wheat Falls a Third Straight Session as Peace Talk Drains the Premium
Futures. SRW September settled 660-0, -18-0, -2.65%, the third straight lower close and 50 cents off Thursday's 710-2 high. KC HRW closed 729-0, -16-2, -2.18%. MIAX Spring Wheat eased 706-2, -8-0, -1.12%. Matif September milling wheat slipped 1.50% to 229.25 after trading both sides.
Black Sea. The attacks have not stopped - Ukrainian drones killed five in Rostov overnight and hit a production facility in Taganrog, home to a grain terminal, with Zelenskiy saying his forces struck a Russian export terminal in the region. But traders noted the big Novorossiysk grain terminals escaped damage, and rumours persist that shipping restrictions may ease. Russian 12.5% new-crop FOB eased to $235-237 versus $238-241 the prior week as freight rates rose around $5 on Black Sea risk. Rusagrotrans pegs July 1-20 Russian shipments at 1.1 MMT, up from 0.693 MMT a year ago, and SovEcon lifted its July export estimate to 1.6 MMT.
US Crop. Winter wheat harvest reached 81%, two points ahead of normal. Spring wheat is 92% headed with 2% harvested and conditions steady at 53% g/e. Export inspections jumped to 394,785t, up 36% on the same week last year, with Bangladesh, Japan and Mexico the top destinations.
Europe. MARS cut its EU soft wheat yield forecast to 5.88 t/ha from 6.00, now 7% below last year, citing repeated heatwaves that shortened grain fill, and warned more cuts are likely with the heat persisting.
Hormuz/Energy. Oil crashed. Brent settled 88.36, down 8.70%, the biggest fall in more than three months, after Trump said the US and Iran are in talks to end the war. Iran-Oman negotiations are focused on restarting Hormuz shipping.
Australia. The USDA attaché lifted its Australian production estimate to 31 MMT from 28, still well below last year's 35.985, with 2026/27 exports seen at 24.5 MMT. The dry deepens on the ground - 14-day rainfall sits below 20% of normal across most of the eastern belt and the GEFS keeps the next fortnight dry for the cropping areas.
Sam's Take: War premium is being stripped out on a perceived lack of escalation and crashing oil market. Fifty cents in three sessions and the fund length built over five weeks of buying is now underwater. Futures are trading the headlines while the physical market trades the logistical reality.
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 660.0 | -18.0 | -2.65% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 677.5 | -18.0 | -2.59% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 693.5 | -17.75 | -2.5% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 701.25 | -16.75 | -2.33% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 698.5 | -16.25 | -2.27% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 704.25 | -15.25 | -2.12% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 715.0 | -14.25 | -1.95% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 729.0 | -16.25 | -2.18% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 745.5 | -16.0 | -2.1% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 757.75 | -15.0 | -1.94% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 763.75 | -14.0 | -1.8% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 759.75 | -13.5 | -1.75% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 762.25 | -13.0 | -1.68% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 769.75 | -12.5 | -1.6% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 706.25 | -8.0 | -1.12% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 728.5 | -9.25 | -1.25% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 744.0 | -8.75 | -1.16% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 753.75 | -7.75 | -1.02% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 755.5 | -6.0 | -0.79% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 744.5 | -1.5 | -0.2% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 745.75 | -1.5 | -0.2% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 229.25 | -3.50 | -1.50% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 234.75 | -1.50 | -0.63% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 236.75 | -1.50 | -0.63% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 238.50 | -1.25 | -0.52% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 231.00 | -1.00 | -0.43% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 235.25 | -1.00 | -0.42% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 349.00 | -5.50 | -1.55% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 364.00 | -8.00 | -2.15% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 367.50 | -8.00 | -2.13% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 374.00 | -8.00 | -2.09% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of July 21, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 578,236 | 74,065 | 93,414 | -19,349 | +17,449 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 345,541 | 66,609 | 36,665 | +29,944 | +12,450 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 89,732 | 21,492 | 18,967 | +2,525 | +8,237 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,300,374 | 172,922 | 48,022 | +124,900 | +52,212 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,425,879 | 320,405 | 227,496 | +92,909 | +49,518 |