Daily Soybean Report
Market Commentary
Beans Slump 40 Cents as Crude Collapses
Futures. November soybeans slumped -39-6 to 1213-6 yesterday, the biggest fall since mid-May, with August -39-4 at 1208-4. The products got hit harder in percentage terms: August soyoil -2.87 at 71.46, its biggest drop in a month, and August meal -10.5 at 320.8. Crude down more than 7% did the damage, with profit-taking and improving forecasts adding weight.
Hormuz/Energy. The war premium is draining fast. Trump says the US and Iran are in talks to end the war, with the strike pause designed to give negotiations a chance, and Iran has halted retaliation. Oman-Iran discussions are now focused on restarting Hormuz shipping traffic. Brent sank the most in more than three months to settle near 88, WTI 82 overnight, and the CPC terminal resumed loadings.
US Crop & Weather. Ratings fell 3 pp to 63% gd/ex, a point below the trade's guess and the lowest for late July since 2023 - last week's heat showed up. The forecast is friendlier: extended models are trending wetter and cooler, with the 7-day QPF putting 1-2 inches across much of IA, MO, IL, IN and OH plus eastern SD and southern MN. Blooming is 80% and pod setting 47%, eight pp ahead of average.
China Demand. Two more new crop flash sales before the open: 132,000 MT to China and 126,000 MT to unknown destinations. The framework buying rolls on. Weekly inspections of 348,850 MT were up 9.3% on the week, with Mexico and Egypt leading.
Two legs gave way at once - crude took back more of the war premium and the maps got wetter into August, so 40 cents came out in a session. The demand leg is the one still standing: China booked more cargoes and the sales pace runs 135% ahead of last year, but with the crude bid gone and US weather risk easing the China demand alone isn't enough to keep soybeans bid.
Charts
Settlement Prices
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 (ZSQ26) | 1208.5 | -39.5 | -3.17% |
| Sep 26 (ZSU26) | 1199.75 | -40.5 | -3.27% |
| Nov 26 (ZSX26) | 1213.75 | -39.75 | -3.17% |
| Jan 27 (ZSF27) | 1227.5 | -39.0 | -3.08% |
| Mar 27 (ZSH27) | 1229.75 | -34.25 | -2.71% |
| May 27 (ZSK27) | 1234.0 | -31.0 | -2.45% |
| Jul 27 (ZSN27) | 1237.5 | -29.0 | -2.29% |
| Aug 27 (ZSQ27) | 1219.0 | -26.5 | -2.13% |
| Sep 27 (ZSU27) | 1179.25 | -22.75 | -1.89% |
| Nov 27 (ZSX27) | 1169.0 | -21.0 | -1.76% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 (ZMQ26) | 320.8 | -10.5 | -3.17% |
| Sep 26 (ZMU26) | 320.3 | -10.5 | -3.17% |
| Oct 26 (ZMV26) | 319.5 | -10.8 | -3.27% |
| Dec 26 (ZMZ26) | 324.1 | -11.1 | -3.31% |
| Jan 27 (ZMF27) | 327.0 | -10.7 | -3.17% |
| Mar 27 (ZMH27) | 329.4 | -9.2 | -2.72% |
| May 27 (ZMK27) | 331.4 | -8.1 | -2.39% |
| Jul 27 (ZMN27) | 334.1 | -7.5 | -2.2% |
| Aug 27 (ZMQ27) | 332.8 | -7.3 | -2.15% |
| Sep 27 (ZMU27) | 330.3 | -6.9 | -2.05% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 (ZLQ26) | 71.46 | -2.87 | -3.86% |
| Sep 26 (ZLU26) | 70.85 | -2.62 | -3.57% |
| Oct 26 (ZLV26) | 70.12 | -2.55 | -3.51% |
| Dec 26 (ZLZ26) | 69.58 | -2.43 | -3.37% |
| Jan 27 (ZLF27) | 69.37 | -2.19 | -3.06% |
| Mar 27 (ZLH27) | 68.96 | -1.93 | -2.72% |
| May 27 (ZLK27) | 68.62 | -1.68 | -2.39% |
| Jul 27 (ZLN27) | 68.16 | -1.51 | -2.17% |
| Aug 27 (ZLQ27) | 67.34 | -1.36 | -1.98% |
| Sep 27 (ZLU27) | 66.45 | -1.23 | -1.82% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZSK7-ZSN7 | -5.25 | -5.25 | -6.0 | -5.5 | 327 |
| ZSN7-ZSQ7 | 12.0 | 12.25 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 20 |
| ZSQ7-ZSU7 | 29.75 | 29.75 | 29.75 | 27.5 | 3 |
| ZSU7-ZSX7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 10 |
| ZSX7-ZSF8 | -10.5 | -10.25 | -10.5 | -10.75 | 2 |
| ZMK7-ZMN7 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -2.2 | -2.0 | 269 |
| ZMN7-ZMQ7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 5 |
| ZLK7-ZLN7 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.7 | 0.71 | 24 |
| ZLN7-ZLQ7 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 53 |
International Markets — DCE & MDEX
| Contract | Settle (CNY/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| XTU6 — Sep 26 | 4,772 | +19 | +0.40% |
| XTX6 — Nov 26 | 4,808 | +19 | +0.40% |
| XTF7 — Jan 27 | 4,837 | +18 | +0.37% |
| XTH7 — Mar 27 | 4,837 | +14 | +0.29% |
| XTK7 — May 27 | 4,904 | +7 | +0.14% |
CNY/t | Dalian Commodity Exchange
| Contract | Settle (MYR/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOQ6 — Aug 26 | 4,551 | -40 | -0.87% |
| KOU6 — Sep 26 | 4,630 | -47 | -1.00% |
| KOV6 — Oct 26 | 4,673 | -49 | -1.04% |
| KOX6 — Nov 26 | 4,705 | -48 | -1.01% |
| KOZ6 — Dec 26 | 4,732 | -47 | -0.98% |
MYR/t | Malaysia Derivatives Exchange
Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of July 21, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,300,374 | 172,922 | 48,022 | +124,900 | +52,212 |
| Soybean Meal (CBOT) OI 684,247 | 130,082 | 54,930 | +75,152 | +27,300 |
| Soybean Oil (CBOT) OI 779,213 | 145,542 | 20,194 | +125,348 | +12,320 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,425,879 | 320,405 | 227,496 | +92,909 | +49,518 |
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 578,236 | 74,065 | 93,414 | -19,349 | +17,448 |